Labour’s School Crossing Patrol risk model is ‘fatally flawed’

Daniel Brown has uncovered serious flaws in Labour's plan to axe 30 school crossing patrols

Liberal Democrat councillors have produced evidence that the ‘risk model’ used by Labour councillors to justify the axing of up to 30 school crossing patrols in Brent is fatally flawed.

An analysis of the council’s proposal by leading Liberal Democrat councillor and local road safety campaigner Daniel Brown shows that:

• Six sites will lose crossing patrols despite having an accident record involving pedestrians (see note 3 below)
• The model assumes wrongly that zebra crossings are equally as safe for children to cross at as pedestrian crossings with traffic lights
• One site serving Harlesden Primary which is supposedly ‘safe’ because it has a zebra crossing also has a pedestrian accident record
• The model relies on data up to 11 years out of date
• It does not take proper account of the speed of traffic at crossing patrol sites or the likelihood that traffic speeds may increase following the withdrawal of a crossing patrol.
• The model assumes that the presence of a traffic island in the middle of the road makes a crossing much safer despite the fact these islands are not designed (and cannot) accommodate large volumes of children.
• Two sites with traffic islands (serving Our Lady of Grace Infants and Donnington Primary) also have pedestrian accident records
• The cut-off point is arbitrary. One school crossing patrol with a ‘final score’ of 7.635 will be saved while another with a score of 6.859 will be axed. No justification is given for choosing 7 as the cut-off point (rather than say 6 or 8 or 4.5). This has led to suspicion that the decision is related to the achievement of financial savings rather than road safety.

Cllr Daniel Brown said:

“Labour’s argument in favour of axing so many crossing patrols is based on the assumption that most of them are located at low-risk sites. Any parent who uses local roads could have told them that this isn’t the case. Now analysis of the model used by Labour transportation chief Jim Moher to justify his cuts backs up the parents’ case. Cllr Moher’s model is fatally flawed. He should withdraw his proposals immediately to put an end to the concerns and fears generated by his plans.”

Notes

1. The consultation can be found on Brent Council’s website. Click on Current Consultations and School Crossing Patrol Service Review.
2. The flawed model can be downloaded as a PDF file at www.bmgresearch.co.uk/brent/UploadedFiles/File%20A%20Risk%20Based%20Model.pdf. An “Explanation of model & threshold” [PDF] is at www.bmgresearch.co.uk/brent/UploadedFiles/File%20B%20Explanation%20of%20model%20&%20threshold.pdf but the explanation raises as many questions as it answers.
3. The six sites which will lose crossing patrols despite having an accident record involving pedestrians are:
   ·         Dollis Hill Lane NW2 (Our Lady of Grace Infants)
   ·         Harrow Road (Sudbury Primary)
   ·         Manor Park Road (John Keble Primary)
   ·         Hillside (Stonebridge & Our Lady of Lourdes)
   ·         Acton Lane j/w Minet NW10 (Harlesden Primary)
   ·         Neasden Lane North NW10 (Wykeham Primary)
4. 12 patrols are being axed simply because they are on zebra crossings
   ·         East Lane (Wembley Primary)
   ·         Church Lane (Fryent Primary)
   ·         Mount Pleasant (Lyon Park Infant & Junior)
   ·         Park Lane (Park Lane Primary)
   ·         Princes Avenue (Roe Green Infant & Junior)
   ·         Acton Lane j/w Greenhill (Harlesden Primary)
   ·         Salusbury Road (Islamia Primary)
   ·         Dollis Hill Lane NW2 (Our Lady of Grace Junior)
   ·         Acton Lane j/w Minet NW10 (Harlesden Primary)
   ·         Manor Farm Road Wembley (Ealing Schools)
   ·         Mapesbury Road NW2 (North West London Jewish School)
   ·         High Road Willesden NW2 (Convent of Jesus & Mary Infants)
5. The following site is both at a zebra crossing and has a pedestrian accident record:
   ·         Acton Lane j/w Greenhill (Harlesden Primary)
6. The survey date for the Salusbury Road site (Islamia Primary School), which is due to be axed, is 13 December 2000 – nearly 11 years ago. The survey date for Slough Lane NW10 (St Robert Southwell Primary) is 4 July 2003 – nearly eight years ago.
7. The following sites both have a traffic island and a pedestrian accident record
   ·         Dollis Hill Lane NW2 (Our Lady of Grace Infants) – patrol recommended to be axed
   ·         Donnington Road NW10 (Donnington Primary) – patrol recommended to be saved
8. The school crossing patrol site which just misses the cut-off point of 7 (with a score of 6.859) is Our Lady of Grace Infants.